When will blu-rays totally replace dvds?

[Spit]

I got cable recently, and noticed there are still a good deal of commercials plugging dvds. Whats up with that? It seems like Blu-rays have been out long enough to be able to start replacing dvds. Anyone want to speculate on how long it will take before Blu-rays totally replace dvds? I'm kind of surprised the switch isn't happening faster.

[buck135]

Well, I just got saw a Walmart commercial today stating that you can bring in your DVD's/Blu-rays (which are on their list of acceptable titles) and have them uploaded to Ultraviolet (a cloud type application) for $2.00 a movie. Therefore you can watch the movie on a tablet, PC, phone, whenever and wherever. I am intrigued and terrified by this. I have an obsessive nature regarding blu-rays. I love the increase in quality and I pray that they are around for many years to come. My fear is studios won't get around to releasing older catalogue titles in high definition because the average consumers aren't as concerned with the quality as I am. We'll see.

[hots4]

i think it will be awhile, i think the average consumer is quite happy with the quality of DVD, also remember we are still in/or just coming out of resession so upgrades are not top of everybodys list, i also believe the average consumer will still want physical media, blu ray sales are increasing so i think it will happen, but it's gonna be a while, what you will probably get is just a single release, with blu, dvd and media copy, which covers requirements.

[rxfiend]

I feel they won't ever fully replace DVDs. I think the format will just co-exist with each other for quite a bit more time.

[elDomenechHDG]

Every once in a while someone poses this question, When will Blu-rays replace DVDs. It's a subject worthy of discussion but I believe the better question would be: When will streaming replace physical media? The ads we're seeing on TV are ads for "home video" in general, not just DVD. Nobody sells just DVD anymore (not talking about independent labels like Code Red - they're in a different category). I see a lot more talk on the net about physical media disappearing altogether in favor of watching movies on your cellphones (aka iPhones), laptops, etc. Hipsters will always embrace "the latest thing" but personally I don't see physical media ever going away completely. The only places I want to watch movies are in a theater (less so these days because of inconsiderate assholes) or in the comfort of my living room, not as I take a dump, walk down the street or wait in line at the supermarket. Anyone who is OK with watching movies "on the go" isn't a true cinephile.

There will always be a physical media market for movies like Lawrence of Arabia or Star Wars (real films, not product). Streaming will be sufficient to catch forgettable dreck like THE CHANGE-UP or anything with Adam Sandler. Nobody wants a 3-disc Limited Edition of CASA DE MI PADRE that has four commentaries and a 2 hour making-of doc. But lots of true cinephiles will always crave to see their favorite classics in true hiigh definition on a big screen TV at home.

[Mikey Horror]

I don't think streaming and downloading will completely take over physical media anytime soon. Look how long itunes has been popular and you can still buy CDs. Christ, even vinyl is making a comeback.

[evildeadfan123]

I personally, everything I have purchased in the last 10 months, with exception of maybe 5 dvds, has been Blu-Ray

[SaviniFan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKiIroiCvZ0

Well said Mr. Lynch.....well said.

[Workshed]

June 6, 2014, at approx. 7:22pm.

[shape22]

I don't believe that Blu-ray will ever become the only physical format. Firmware updates remain beyond the comfort level of the Wal-Mart types who used to demand full-frame releases of feature films. If you search the forums at any DVD/Blu-ray review site you'll see all kinds of threads devoted to compatibility issues with different players. That makes Blu-ray a difficult format for the low-tech crowd.

DVD remains the one-size-fits-all option. I don't think it will disappear until a less complicated hi-def format hits the market. That type of format could eventually replace DVD and Blu-ray.

[Mutilated Prey]

I feel they won't ever fully replace DVDs. I think the format will just co-exist with each other for quite a bit more time.

I agree with Jason's Grandpa. DVD media is dirt cheap and there are tons of people that will never make the Blu Ray jump purely because it doesn't fit into their economic lifestyle. There will be a market for DVD's for a long time to come.

[dave13]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKiIroiCvZ0

Well said Mr. Lynch.....well said.

i've seen that before, i love that video. the incredulity, disappointment, and anger he expresses sums up my feelings perfectly.

[Robert Simandl]

Robert Wagner and Fred Thoimpson are currently peddling DVD's that explain why you simply HAVE to have a reverse mortgage on your home.

When those get redone as blu-ray discs, THEN I'll take the idea of DVD's going away permanently, seriously. :D

[Jeremy]

Blu-Ray's road to acceptance as the standard in home video shares a lot more in common with the early days of VHS than it does with DVD, which the studios are discovering to their considerable unhappiness. VHS was rolled out in the late 70's and early 80's at a time when the economy was suffering from recession, inflation and high unemployment, and it faced a format war in which it had to square off not only against Betamax, but it also faced competition from early video disc formats, particularly laserdiscs (which in an alternate timeline could have become very popular in this country, since they were actually cheaper to produce than VHS tapes). Now you have Blu-Ray, which also had to fight a format war, winning the battle just as the economy was slipping into an even worse recession. DVD never had to contend with that, it never had to fight a real format war (Divx was basically DOA) and it was rolled out on an economic upswing. And with DVD, you didn't need extra technology to make it work, almost everyone already had a TV after all, while with Blu-Ray it was senseless to get a player unless you already had an HDTV, which a lot of people didn't and still don't. And don't forget that the backwards compatibility of Blu-Ray players and the ability to upconvert DVDs, while being consumer friendly, makes it a lot easier for people who do make the switch to justify holding onto their DVD collections and not re-buy most of their discs.

What it comes down to is that Blu-Ray will someday become the standard in physical media, but the slowness with which it is being adopted means that it may not become the standard in home video as a whole, streaming media may very well overtake it in terms of number of customers/viewers/etc (and that comes from someone who is typically bearish on the demise of physical media). And in their push to get consumers switched over to Blu-Ray, the studios have done a very good job of devaluing their libraries. I remember a time, twenty years ago, when you could not buy a VHS release from any of the big studios for anything less than $14.95, and $19.95 was the standard price for most titles. Any companies that priced their tapes cheaper than that were either selling public domain movies and/or passing off cheap LP/EP mode tapes on the public. Eventually that started to change, before DVD hit Columbia/Sony started selling some titles for $10 and Paramount began reissuing certain films for that price on EP cassettes. Nowadays though, a movie comes out on Blu-Ray for $29.95 and within eighteen months you can get it at Best Buy for $7.99, which really has become the consumer expectation now, that if they wait a little while they can pick up movies for unimaginably dirt cheap prices.

[Agentsusp]

For your average consumer it's not about quality, it's about ease of use. Blu-Rays are not any easier to use than a DVD. But a DVD was MUCH easier to use than a VHS (no rewind, smaller, etc etc) so they don't really see a reason to upgrade, and when you factor in the previously mentioned firmware issues, it's never going to happen. Blu Ray will always be the laser disc to DVD's VHS, util streaming and clouds take over.

[maybrick]

Streaming is great for rental, but not so much for purchase. But then again I used to be vehemently against paying for mp3 albums and I do that now. It's just that most new music nowadays is completely disposable and the older albums I want are either too hard to find and OOP (that and I really don't have any room for more CDs after 22 years of collecting). However, if it's an album or box set I really love and the packaging is special enough I'll probably buy a hard copy. I'm thinking of going back to record collecting, actually. I still don't think I'll be doing the same with films though.

[bigdaddyhorse]

I still don't think I'll be doing the same with films though.

Yeah, wait til you start updating your LE dvds with blu-ray then not being able to sell the dvd cuz you like the weird case too much. It's already happening at my house, it could happen at yours too!:D

[maybrick]

Yeah, wait til you start updating your LE dvds with blu-ray then not being able to sell the dvd cuz you like the weird case too much. It's already happening at my house, it could happen at yours too!:D

No, I meant that I doubt that I'll ever get to the point where I'll pay good money to own a video download. I already know that I'll never sell my Phantasm sphere or my Evil Dead: Book of the Dead Necromonicon when I inevitably upgrade those title to blu-ray. (btw, DVDs aren't really worth more than 50 cents to a dollar for resale anymore so more often than not I give them away to friends when I no longer want them.)

[Paff]

(btw, DVDs aren't really worth more than 50 cents to a dollar for resale anymore so more often than not I give them away to friends when I no longer want them.)

I've said it before, but so few people listen. PUT YOUR UNWANTED DVDs UP ON SWAPADVD.COM. If your taste in movies is more than halfway decent, they'll get snatched up in a second, and you will build up credit towards getting movies you want. Sure, it takes a long time to get the ones you do want as there's usually a long waiting list, but what the hell, it's completely free. Next Blue Underground copy of Bird With the Crystal Plumage Blu that someone posts up is mine.

[bigdaddyhorse]

I've said it before, but so few people listen. PUT YOUR UNWANTED DVDs UP ON SWAPADVD.COM.


Been doing that for a couple years myself now, and slowly I'm getting stuff from my wishlist, even some pretty rare shit (Caged Heat well before the double feature Shout! disc).

Paff does promote it better than me though, so the first 18 people to take our advice use him as a reference (so he gets a credit), then members 19 and 20 use me, then back to the start.:D

Of course some shit I just take to the used store and hope for decent trade, which I usually get around here. I actually got $10 in trade for the Saw 3,4 and 5 dvds the other week! Online says if there was free shipping from amazon sellers, I could get all of em for about a buck total.:eek: Plus I had got all them on Blu for $2 each when BlockBuster was closing, so upgrade and get $4 toward another disc.:)

Or there's the stuff I want from there that I would never dream of posting if I had it. You know, the ebay stuff that's gone up so far in value it doesn't make sense to give it away or sell cheap (I look at swap as selling cheap, then getting cheap).

[Ptflea2]

I've been on SwapDVD.com for almost two years and I've gotten exactly 1 freaking movie from it. Granted, most of my wish list is rare stuff, but I've been number one or two for three movies for over a year now and still I wait. Plenty of credit too.

[maybrick]

Meh. Can't be bothered. I'd rather give them to friends or relatives who want to see the movies.

[rxfiend]

I love giving away DVDs of films I've upgraded. I usually donate to the local library, which then these films can be unleashed unto an unsuspecting public! LOL

[X-human]

Unlike VHS to DVD with DVD to Blu-ray we have backwards compatibility. Even if every DVD player on earth spontaneously exploded there still could be a market because any Blu-ray player would suffice. So in a way as long as Blu-ray is alive DVD will not be replaced.

But DVD's sales have been slipping since 2008 while Blu-ray's sales have been steadily increasing since its inception. There is an extensive thread with weekly updates on sales figures at the AVS Forum (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=798272&page=384). Originally it helped track the progress of HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray but now it's just people with a fetish for charts, figures and graphs.

[bigdaddyhorse]

I've been on SwapDVD.com for almost two years and I've gotten exactly 1 freaking movie from it. Granted, most of my wish list is rare stuff, but I've been number one or two for three movies for over a year now and still I wait. Plenty of credit too.


I was feeling this way a bit ago, then the flood gates opened and all the not so rare shit way down the wishlist started coming in. Ended up getting like 5 discs in 4 weeks. I expect that most of my top 10 I will never see, cuz not many people are gonna give away a disc they could $50-$100+ for, but you never know.

Paff, let us know if you ever get that Bird Blu.
I have the Angel set from Anchor Bay as my #1, but even with the new set out I doubt I'll ever get it.

[Ptflea2]

B.Horse, I will say the one DVD I did get was a mint, Anchor Bay release of "Straight to Hell" which was out of print and at about $35 at the time on Amazon. Wanted to see that for years and getting my own for free was pretty cool.

[Paff]

I just throw whatever discs I want on the list. Sometimes I'll buy one elsewhere and then just remove it off my Swap want list. I've gotten some rare titles, and some common ones. It's best for the "I want that movie, I just don't wanna pay a lot for it".

Like I said though, I'm at #1 for Crystal Plumage blu. Let's see if it comes in.

[SaxCatz]

Although Blu-ray players will likely entirely replace DVD players in retail in the next few years due to the ever diminishing difference in manufacturing cost, the same backwards compatibility that will make the continued manufacture of DVD-only players unnecessary will ensure that there is a market for DVD discs for a very long time.

[Korngold]

I just throw whatever discs I want on the list. Sometimes I'll buy one elsewhere and then just remove it off my Swap want list. I've gotten some rare titles, and some common ones. It's best for the "I want that movie, I just don't wanna pay a lot for it".

Like I said though, I'm at #1 for Crystal Plumage blu. Let's see if it comes in.

I joined, but no one is getting my crystal plummage BR. :p

[Conal Cochran]

:lol:

I love giving away DVDs of films I've upgraded. I usually donate to the local library, which then these films can be unleashed unto an unsuspecting public! LOL

[Bobholly]

It is simple.

DVD=VHS

Blu Ray=Laserdisc

Laserdisc while better than VHS never replaced it.

[Katatonia]

It is simple.

DVD=VHS

Blu Ray=Laserdisc

Laserdisc while better than VHS never replaced it.

I don't buy the Laserdisc analogy anymore. Laserdiscs were vastly overpriced, and hardly available for sale everywhere like Blu-rays are today.

Blu-rays are also far more affordable now, and the format's users have far surpassed any of the Laserdisc user numbers.

Not to mention that really only HDTV's are sold anymore these days, and Blu-ray players are dirtcheap.

[crikan]

I think Blu-ray dies before DVD. It won't be long before physical media is dead and I can see DVD's trickling out of indie labels during it's final breaths.

[Anaestheus]

My thought, based mainly on personal experience, is that streaming will eventually replace DVD and BluRay will eventually become a "collector's only" market.

So we'll see DVD die once the whole business of streaming gets sorted out, i.e. distribution rights, the common placement of streaming devices like game consoles or smart tvs, etc. Most are right when they site DVDs continued presence being one of consumer convenience and distributor's cost effectiveness. But, I think the streaming model definitely beats those in terms of convenience. Hell, when I'm flipping through Netflix on my PS3, I'll see a movie that I have on disc less than 20 feet away and I'll still end up hitting the stream.

But, the BluRay market will shine for films where you want the best quality and the extras. So, companies like Criterion will stay stable there. And, I'll always want Kubrick on BluRay. And, even though Netflix had Immortals available, I still got the disc because I wanted the visuals as good as I could possibly get them. And for films by Bava or Leone, I definitely want the commentaries. But, those are very much benefits for the niche market. My biggest concern is that this may mean that the prices for BD don't really go down to the point that DVD has.

[Ash28M]

Streaming will replace renting but there will always be people like myself who prefer having something tangible you can actually hold onto and display. People burn copies of DVD's or downloading movies, they watch them once and throw them away. Owning a professional copy that you hunted down feels like you somehow own a piece of the film.

[crikan]

Streaming will replace renting but there will always be people like myself who prefer having something tangible you can actually hold onto and display. People burn copies of DVD's or downloading movies, they watch them once and throw them away. Owning a professional copy that you hunted down feels like you somehow own a piece of the film.

I have feeling that wanting to "have something tangible" will be an old person thing (my 37 year-old self included). Today's teens and those that follow are going to be used to disposable entertainment and this idea of owning movies will be a thing of the past.

Having just recently graduated out of the covetted 18-35 age bracket its no surprise I'm starting to feel left out by product manufactures. It's only to to get worse as the things I enjoy become less and less available.

[elDomenechHDG]

Unless EVERY SINGLE DISTRIBUTOR (the majors as well as small indie outfits like Code Red) go Blu, the format will NEVER totally replace DVD. So, the answer is never.

[Dobby]

Today's teens and those that follow are going to be used to disposable entertainment and this idea of owning movies will be a thing of the past.

Most entertainment these days is disposable shit. :lol:

[othervoice1]

IMO the answer is yes unless physical media for movies dies altogether first. But I was backing HD-DVD at the beginning so what do I know lol

[buck135]

IMO the answer is yes unless physical media for movies dies altogether first. But I was backing HD-DVD at the beginning so what do I know lol

Don't feel bad. I too supported both HD-DVD (Xbox 360 add-on) and Blu-ray (PS3). I would love to amass a laserdisc collection just for the terrific features many titles possesed that are long gone. Unfortunatly, it isn't any cheaper now to collect laserdiscs as it was in their heyday. I think blu-ray will replace DVD if the recordable media drops in price considerably as well as a blu-ray players inclusion wth the PS4 and the Xbox 8 (?).

[allmessedup]

I don't know if streaming will ever entirely replace physical media...there is still a "digital divide" and I don't know if companies will ever want to entirely write off the people who don't have access to high speed internet.

I agree with Saxcat, the backward compatibility issue may allow DVDs to stick around longer than people might think. You can't really compare it to VHS for that reason.

[X-human]

Unless EVERY SINGLE DISTRIBUTOR (the majors as well as small indie outfits like Code Red) go Blu, the format will NEVER totally replace DVD. So, the answer is never.

By that logic the argument could be made then that DVD hasn't even replaced VHS because Nail Gun Massacre is still being released on VHS.

Although I'm not sure Blu-ray will be the last format I think eventually we'll have streaming vs. high end physical format. It may not be until UHQ HD at 4k/6k/8k or even larger. But eventually film fans will migrate to that system and casual fans will use something simpler like streaming media.

The simple fact is that it'll soon become impractical to sell a DVD only player. The diode that does Blu-ray can also do DVD. So manufacturers will eventually just say, "If you want to watch DVDs still just buy a Blu-ray player. We're not spending any more R&D on stand alone DVD." It's doubtful we'll still see DVDs being manufactured by 2022. If independents are releasing content they'll probably be on Blu-ray because by that time it'll be cheap enough. (Hell even Something Weird is on Blu-ray today.)

Between now and 2022 when will it be? I'm thinking around 2018.

[Shannafey]

You guys have pretty much answered this, but even if people don't buy into Blu-Rays, the players are backwards compatible (unlike laserdisc or DVD before them), so there isn't really any reason not to buy a Blu-Ray player other than price and soon enough that will change. Some things I buy in Blu-Ray, some in DVD. This retro VHS shit is so stupid, I'm not even commenting on it! I recently watched a VHS on my HDTV and it looked horrendous, but it was the only way to see the movie. I need to dump it to DVD-R!! Like most of you on this forum, I'll continue to buy movies.

I HATE Streaming services. Most of the time, they don't have what I want, especially when you think about the kinds of movies we like on this forum. I can't tell you how many times I thought about a movie and I have to either buy it or DL it somewhere, depending on availability.

Streaming has its uses. It is a much better alternative than renting and for TV shows, I think it is great. I watch things on Hulu here and there and on my Comcast On Demand. Don't have Netflix, since I don't see the reason to pay for it. I buy enough stuff, that I always have something to watch, but here and there I go to the others. All in all, I don't see physical media disappearing anytime soon. I hope it never does, but if it does, I'll still have my huge collection regardless if I can't buy any more to add to it!!

[Franco]

For the sake of planet resources, humans will have to go streaming in the future anyways. Well, that is unless we start harvesting resources from another planet or moon, and I wonder if there's replacement for all we need in the nearer ones, in the solar system.

[Bobholly]

I seriously doubt streaming will ever replace physical media. What people don't seem to remember or realize is there is still plenty of places where you can not get broadband internet. And now with lots of the broadband net providers putting data caps on their users that means you can't just stream stuff all the time. Plus there is plenty of people out there that won't use streaming. It is not just older people. I know plenty of people that want a physical product. It is like mp3s,people claimed that they would kill CDs. Well it has been what close to a decade since Itunes started. And CDs are still around. And records are making a comeback.

[spawningblue]

Yeah streaming won't replace physical media any time soon. I would say it will be another 10 years at least before streaming even comes close to saturating the market. Right now it is a small small market of sales.

AS for people saying Blu Rays will have to get a lot cheaper, what do you want, them to give them away? Many Blu Rays can be found for $5. Can't get any cheaper then that. And most new releases are the same price as the DVD version. Players can be found for $50 which again isn't much.

[tropical marsh]

I'm in the camp that believes streaming/downloading/VOD will become the dominant form of accessing movie media in less than 10 years. New releases (as in, movies playing in theaters now) will still be available on BD/DVD for quite some time, but the catalog market is most likely headed for specialty labels, limited editions, MOD services, and shit like that. Movie collecting in general will probably go the way of comic books, coins, records/LPs, etc--more of a niche market/hobby.

[X-human]

...comic books, gold coins and vinyl have exploded in popularity recently...

[Katatonia]

...comic books, gold coins and vinyl have exploded in popularity recently...

Everything retro eventually does it seems.

I just wouldn't even care about ever "buying" a download. My interest in collecting would then just stop. I don't do it for music unless it's the only way to get it, etc..

Why buy a download movie if I can just rent it whenever I got the urge to see it? And "bought" extras wouldn't tempt me there either.